Showing posts with label lining. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lining. Show all posts

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Auto industry the silver lining in gloomy economy

General Motors is clearly the leader in June auto sales. Overall, sales were slightly better than expected, reports CNBC's Phil LeBeau.

By Paul A. Eisenstein, msnbc.com contributor
There may be plenty of reasons to worry about the U.S. economy: Weak jobs numbers, poor housing starts and a European economic crisis that threatens to spill across the Atlantic. But based on June sales numbers, the American auto industry is not one of them.

Car sales outpaced even the more optimistic forecasts, with several manufacturers setting all-time records. A number of others, notably General Motors, saw demand surge to levels not seen since before the start of the lingering U.S. recession.

Significantly, while the industry was clearly pushing hard to sell, sell, sell, industry data suggest automakers didn’t fall into the past trap of buying sales with hefty rebates and other incentives.

“The combination of new products, available credit, lower fuel prices and modest economic growth was a stronger influence on consumer behavior than economic and political uncertainty,” said Kurt McNeil, General Motors’ vice president of U.S. sales.

GM posted a solid, 16 percent year-over-year gain, June bringing the maker’s best monthly unit sales since September of 2008.

Chrysler, meanwhile, delivered its 27th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase — an increase of 20 percent — making it Chrysler’s best June in five years.

Honda had to look back to 2008 for the last time it did so well in June, a month normally buoyed by the so-called Spring buying season. Overall, the Japanese maker gained 48.8 percent, but its struggling luxury division, Acura, gained 76.5 percent — helped by the addition of some critical new products like the entry-luxury ILX. The mainstream Honda division did well, with a 45.6 percent increase despite the fact that its Accord sedan is months away from being replaced by an all-new model.

The Japanese did well across the board, Nissan reporting a 28.2 percent jump — its own luxury arm, Infiniti, gaining 66.1 percent for the month.

But the real winner was industry giant Toyota. Like its Japanese rivals it suffered severely in spring 2011 as it was forced to close or sharply cut back production at many of its key assembly plants due to the March earthquake and tsunami that devastated Northeast Japan. For June 2012, it saw sales rocket upwards by 60.3 percent — and forecast still better days to come.

“June and first-half sales were driven by consumer interest in our new models including the Prius C … and the Camry,” which was redesigned for the 2012 model-year, noted Toyota division group vice president Bob Carter. “We expect to see continued stability in the automotive market during the second half of 2012,” added Carter, thanks to pent-up demand, low interest rates and a continued influx of new products.”

Toyota recently increased its forecast for the full year to 14.5 million vehicles, a figure more and more analysts now agree with. In fact, June’s Seasonally Adjusted Annual Sales Rate, or SAAR, came in at more than 14 million, up from 13.7 million in May.

And it did that even though the industry cut back on incentives by 1.6 percent from May to June, to an average $2,187 per vehicle, according to a preliminary estimate by tracking firm Edmunds.com. That was also down 0.8 percent from June 2011.

Nonetheless, there are some skeptics who worry that a weak economic recovery and the threat of a worsening crisis in Europe could cause the car market to stutter — or force makers to ramp up spending on givebacks.

"There was great pressure from automakers to close June strong, especially after the unexpectedly weak Memorial Day holiday weekend in May,” noted Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ chief analyst. “It is the end of a quarter so undoubtedly they wanted to finish big. Two weak months in a quarter would make for unfavorable reporting."

If anything, the industry may be suffering from too quick a recovery. Ford Motor Co. sales rose by a relatively modest 7 percent, but the maker has repeatedly warned that the cuts it made during the recession now leave it with a shortage of capacity. Hyundai has issued a similar warning and said it is struggling to break bottlenecks both at its U.S. plant and on assembly plants in Korea.

There were a few weak players in June, notably Jaguar which has been struggling to build demand for its flagship XJ resulting from reports of early quality problems (the big sedan getting a clean bill of health in the latest J.D. Power Initial Quality Survey released last month).

Luckily for the Indian-owned carmaker its British sibling Land Rover has scored a big hit with its first-ever crossover vehicle, the Range Rover Evoque. Overall Jaguar Land Rover sales were up a combined 2 percent.

A surprisingly weak performance came from BMW, up only 0.4 percent for the month, though its Mini subsidiary gained 14.7 percent — the combined brands collectively picking up 3.2 percent for June.

Meanwhile, Mercedes-Benz not only set a June sales record but had its highest-ever U.S. sales for the first half of the year. Porsche picked up 17.9 percent, the brand scoring with new versions of the flagship 911 sedan and smaller Boxster roadster.

Volkswagen gained 34.5 percent, steadily gaining momentum with its midsize Passat which was designed specifically for the U.S. market and which is being built at the German maker’s new assembly plant in Chattanooga.

VW sales are running at their highest levels since the golden days of the original Beetle. But the maker is targeting a goal of 600,000 vehicles annually before decade’s end, which would require it to double again its current sales.

So, like the rest of the industry, the maker is keeping corporate fingers crossed that June’s sales surge wasn’t just a short-term phenomenon.

Friday, June 15, 2012

Silver lining behind the may car sales data

How does the weak economic reports strong auto sales? Senior Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds discuss analyst and CNBC's Phil LeBeau.

By Paul A. Eisenstein, msnbc.com of mysteries
May display an another large storm surge is its position the US auto industry as one of the bright spots in the sputtering American economy shoring sale. But also with some decision makers report sales, which almost doubled last month, there are some potentially disturbing questions behind the may figures.

Analysts and industry officials remain unsure whether the auto market can keep its current, rapid pace, especially when others start economic factors, such as for example the strong decline in the growth of jobs and a slide in the stock market, put off to potential buyers.

But for the moment, the may figures let reason to hope, that the car sales exceed also cautious earlier predictions for 2012.

Among the optimists is analyst Jesse Toprak, data tracking company TrueCar.com. "Further recover sales and consumers feel highly satisfied purchase vehicles well, said Toprak, consumers noting that four brands, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and Kia, the highest average selling prices achieved - the figure actually after discounts - in its history numbers."

Toyota saw its sales in the meantime increase of more than 87 percent for the month, a significant turning point for a manufacturer, the strong declines in large parts of the 2011 suffered. Naturally, the Japanese giant profits must be relativized. Sell in May last year reflects a low point during the impact of the devastating earthquake and tsunami, who all finished but leave hopelessly short of product to sell the Japanese car industry dealer.

But Toyota officials insist, there were other factors behind the may revival. "Our growth was spearheaded by the success of new products of the Camry sold been and Prius family, part of the most aggressive product launch in our history", said Bob Carter, Toyota division general manager.

Other Japanese manufacturers Honda, which was also hard hit by the Japanese disaster March 2011 written an only slightly less impressive 47.6 percent sales jump, 46 percent of the flagship Honda brand and 62 percent or the brand Acura.

In the meantime, Japan's second-largest producer, Nissan, saw its sales "only" 20.5 percent-including the Nissan and Infiniti brands increase. But not quite so serious production-related revenues in 2011 as the other two members of Japan's suffering Nissan three large.

A number of superlatives generates the may numbers: General Motors, with an increase of 11 percent on the previous year, the best sales since August 2009, while the Government's cash for clunkers program written.

Audi was one of the several decision makers reports its best-ever may, when the German siblings VW recorded the best may since 1973. Nevertheless, Jonathan was Browning, President and CEO of Volkswagen Group of America - includes also Bentley - surprisingly restrained during a conference call with journalists.

GM recently raised its forecast for 2012 to a possible high of 14.5 million vehicles of all raised, Browning, said VW now will remain while with a more conservative estimate of 13.9 million.

"We are not prepared, change our forecast," said Browning, warns that there are many economic uncertainties, that 2012 could lead to a softening of demand in the second half. In fact Browning found it especially softening and then ends with a big bang over the holiday weekend "ebbing and flowing" in the market opening in May was, strong month.

Analyst art Spinella of CNW marketing, said that his company "Zittern Index" showed itself to a measurement car interested parties are as concerned. And there are many reasons, worried, be from the uncertain U.S. labour market to the decline of the stock market, without regard to the potential crisis in the euro zone.

On the other hand, reported AAA nationwide fuel prices have on average about 27 cents per gallon since their peak in early April fell. And some oil industry observers believe that some parts of the country pump prices as low as $3 instead of $4 to $5-a-gallon pay if by summer 2012 could see expected soon.

Showing sliding demand and low prices for certain vehicles, small, high mileage offers already. In the new car market demand for fuel-saving models maintain a healthy pace, most manufacturers reported - but GM said that that its full-size pickups 27% in may, more than double the manufacturer's total sales revenue.

An alternative explanation is that as one of the basic tools of the American working class, the increase in sale recommend pick up could now faster than Wall Street main street recovers.

CNBCS Phil LeBeau reported sales of General Motors, up 10.9% compared to 11.4% estimate, while Toyota sales 87.3% vs. 89.5% estimates reported.